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Understanding the Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Long-Distance Travel Mode and Destination Choice in Texas

What Was the Need?

Automated vehicles (AVs) are predicted to be available for public use sometime within the next 10 years. Long-distance travel models indicate that an increased number of travelers may choose AVs and shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) over airline flights for moderately long trips such as between Houston and Dallas. Furthermore, the ease of travel that is expected to come with the availability of AVs may cause travelers to choose longer trips than what is customary today. Two consequences of this must be examined. First, the airline market may be severely impacted by this shift in mode choice. Second, long-distance travel demand may increase, prompting further study on building adequate inter-city roadway infrastructure.

Project Summary

This research will expand a national travel demand model with a new AV mode using estimates of future market penetration. Researchers will investigate Texas in the model, both for intrastate travel and travel outside of the state. Results from the model will include mode split, destination choice, person-miles traveled, travel cost (including airline revenue), and AV market penetration, stratified across various distance ranges. The research team will conduct a survey and market study to validate the results.

Project Number

0-7081

Status

Completed

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Project Details

Start Date

9/1/2020

End Date

8/31/2022

Performing Institution(s)

Center for Transportation Research (CTR)

Research Team

Kara Kockelman

Sponsor

Project Manager

Martin Dassi

Contract Specialist

Barbara Cisneros

TxDOT Advisor

Geena Maskey, TPP
Sondra Johnson, TPP
Ryan Granger, TPP
James Kuhr, STR
Anh Duong, HOU

Amount Funded

$366,200

Publications from this Project

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Functional Area

Strategy and Innovation

Index Terms

Autonomous vehicles
Choice models
Distance
Market penetration
Public transit
Travel demand
Travel modes
Vehicle sharing

Lead University

CTR

Researcher

Kockelman, Kara

Geographic name

Texas

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Record Added:

2/23/2021

Record Updated:

8/25/2023 5:30 AM EDT

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